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The soft commodity complex has been hit hard this week and we see potential for further downside in the short term, particularly for sugar and cocoa. A retreat in risk appetite over recent weeks has particularly undermined soft commodity prices, which traditionally trade in a volatile fashion. Indeed, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [...]

A renewed boost of confidence in Brazil’s economy has seen the government’s US$ Global 2027 bond rally in recent trading, with the yield on the instrument compressing towards 6.1% on March 1. Currently coming up against technical resistance, further yield compression may be difficult to come by. That said, should a break of the [...]

Since spiking to a five-week high, three-month copper has pulled back steadily and we anticipate further downside from the current level of US$7,280/tonne. As we highlighted in this space yesterday (see: ‘Commodities: Key Levels Of Resistance Under Pressure’, March 1 2010), copper prices initially surged higher in the wake of Chile’s devastating earthquake.
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BMI View : The end of the regional recession, stabilisation of currencies and the sharp mitigation of external account deficits have significantly improved the sovereign risk outlook for emerging Europe. That said, wide fiscal deficits will come into increasing focus going forward, especially as a busy election cycle and a weak macroeconomic recovery are likely [...]

The Venezuelan stock market has come under some corrective pressure in recent weeks, undoing much of the thrust seen in the immediate aftermath of the bolivar devaluation. The benchmark Índice Bursátil Caracas (IBC), which comprises 17 key stocks, has lost some 6.5% since touching a 3-year high at 60,582 on January 18. A breach of [...]

BMI View: We expect the political temperature to rise in Nicaragua in 2010, as President Daniel Ortega ploughs forth with his controversial re-election plans. Any further attempts to side step the democratic process are likely to backfire, with renewed bouts of public unrest far from unthinkable.
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BMI View: Several equity markets in Sub-Saharan Africa are close to key technical levels. Broadly speaking, we are cautious on South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana over the short term. Meanwhile, Kenya, Nigeria and Ghana are promising long-term plays, although attractive entry points have yet to present themselves.
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Risk aversion linked to a potential political crisis in Turkey has hammered the equity market, with the benchmark ISE-100 index falling 7.4% in under four days. Worryingly, the index has now smashed through the 50 and 100-day moving averages on the daily chart and broken through short-term trendline support at 52,000. The ISE-100 is now [...]